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                                                                          毛振華:反思金融危機應對得失 ,推動中國經濟再調整、再出發

                                                                          來源:澳门葡京     發佈時間:2018-12-13     瀏覽量:689

                                                                          12月13日 ,由澳门葡京集團主辦的2019中國信用年會在香港舉行 。本屆信用年會以“多重挑戰下的政策平衡”爲主題 ,港交所集團行政總裁李小加先生、國內知名人民幣匯率問題專家管濤先生以及陳東昇、樑錦鬆、張文中等亞布力中國企業家論壇代表出席會議併發言 。澳门葡京集團創始人、澳门葡京在线首席經濟學家毛振華在會上發表題爲《金融危機十年:中國經濟應對的得失與反思》的主旨演講 ,指出金融危機對中國經濟及政策產生了深遠影響 ,十年來宏觀調控在穩增長和防風險之間動態變化 ,市場化的改革開放進程也因金融危機的擾動被迫出現調整 。毛振華提出 ,值此金融危機十週年之際 ,有必要對危機後中國經濟應對得失進行反思 ,並在此基礎上調整中國宏觀經濟政策 ,藉此推動中國經濟再調整、再出發 。

                                                                          On December 13, the 2019 China Credit Annual Conference hosted by China Chengxin Group was held in Hong Kong. Theme of the year was “the Balance of China’s Economic Policies under Multiple Challenges”. Experts, including Li Xiaojia, CEO of the HKEX Group, and Guan Tao, a well-known expert on RMB exchange rate in China attended the conference. Yabuli Chinese Entrepreneurs Forum Representatives, including Chen Dongsheng, Liang Jinsong, Zhang Wenzhong et al. participated in the discussion as well.Dr. Mao Zhenhua, founder of China Chengxin Group and chief economist of China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd,delivered a keynote speech -- "A Decade after the 2008 Financial Crisis: A Reflection on China’s Ten-year Macroeconomic Polices". He points out that the 2008 crisis has had a profound impact on China's economy and policies. In the post-crisis decade, China’s macroeconomic policy objectives shifted dynamically between Steady Growth and Risk Prevention, and market-oriented reform and opening up roadmap was forced to undergo certain adjustments due to the crisis. Mao Zhenhua believes that at a time when a decade has passed since the crisis, it is essential to reflect on China's post-crisis responses through adjustments in economic policies, and to consider re-adjusting policies in order to promote China's economic transition and to restart the course of reform and opening up.

                                                                          毛振華在演講中指出 ,金融危機對中國宏觀政策產生了多方面的影響 。一方面 ,十年來中國宏觀調控在穩增長與防風險之間動態調整:金融危機後中國出臺了“四萬億”等一系列經濟刺激政策 ,並實施積極的財政政策和適度寬鬆的貨幣政策 ,隨着中國經濟企穩、宏觀風險積聚 ,2016年下半年以來中國宏觀調控重心轉向防風險 ,逐步形成以穩增長、防風險爲核心的雙底線調控思路 。另一方面 ,在金融危機的衝擊下 ,中國改革開放路線圖被迫調整 ,政府之手對資源配置的干預增強 ,在一定程度上偏離了市場化的改革方向 。與此同時 ,伴隨着金融危機後國內外經濟形勢的變化 ,中國對外政策也有所調整 。

                                                                          In his speech, Mao Zhenhua points out that the financial crisis has had an impact on China's macroeconomic policies in multiple ways. On the one hand, China’s macroeconomic policy objectives shifted dynamically between steady growth and risk prevention in the past decade: soon after the crisis, China introduced a series of economic stimulus policies, including a 4 trillion yuan ($585billion) stimulus plan, along with proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy. While China's economy stabilized, macroeconomic risks were accumulating. China's macroeconomic policy objective shifted toward risk prevention since the second half of 2016, and gradually formed a policy with dual bottom-line – steady growth and risk prevention. On the other hand, in order to cope with the crisis, China's market-oriented reform roadmap was forced to adjust, with political intervention strengthened in resource allocation process, deviating from the market-oriented reform direction to some extent. What is more, in accompany with changes in the domestic and international economic environment, China's foreign policy also adjusted.

                                                                          毛振華分析 ,十年來中國宏觀政策的調整有得有失 。從積極的角度看 ,金融危機以來中國採取的一系列政策在保障中國經濟平穩增長方面發揮了重要作用 ,中國經濟在全球率先企穩 ,2010年超過日本成爲第二大經濟體 ,並於2013年超越美國成爲第一大貨物貿易國 ,爲中國經濟發展贏得了難得窗口期 。但毛振華還提出 ,經濟刺激政策也帶來了多重風險 ,“債務—投資”驅動的經濟增長模式導致債務風險不斷累積 ,金融風險持續積聚 。毛振華提醒 ,雖然2016年下半年以來採取的一系列防風險措施在一定程度上緩釋了風險 ,但風險警報依然存在 。尤爲值得一提的是 ,2008年以來一系列國內經濟政策和對外政策的主動、被動調整被美國等西方國家誤讀 ,導致美國對中國的認知和態度發生根本轉變 ,在一定程度上成爲中美貿易衝突的重要原因 ,導致中國經濟運行的外部不確定性加大 。

                                                                          He further analyzes China’s gains and losses from the last decade adjustments in macroeconomic policy. From a positive perspective, a series of post-crisispolicies played an important role in ensuring China’s stable economic growth in the past decade, and stimulated China to take the lead in  global economic recovery. In 2010, China surpassed Japan to become the second largest economy, and later surpassed the United States as the largest trader of goods in 2013. It turned out that the 2008 financial crisis became a rare window for China’s economic growth, and even to have several crucial big leaps. On the other hand, he also highlights various risks after rounds of economic stimulus. The “debt-investment”-driven economic growth model has led to a constant accumulation of debt risks and financial risks. Although a series of risk-prevention-oriented measures were adopted since the second half of 2016, which relieved the economic risks to some extent, risks still stand out perilously. Particularly, it is worth mentioning that China’s series of adjustments since 2008, either actively or passively, has been misread by the United States and other Western countries, leading to a fundamental change in their perception and attitude toward China, which later became an important factor leading to the Sino-U.S. trade conflictand increasing external uncertainties for China’s economic development.

                                                                          在演講中 ,毛振華還對當前中國經濟形勢與政策進行了分析 。毛振華分析 ,在內部經濟下行壓力加大、外部大國博弈導致不確定性因素上升的背景下 ,2018年中國經濟政策再次調整:穩增長再次被置於重要位置 ,貨幣政策邊際寬鬆 ,財政政策力度加大 ,金融從“嚴監管”轉向“穩監管” 。但毛振華提醒 ,非常規的調控政策短期可視經濟情況採用 ,但要把握好度 ,不能走“債務—投資”驅動經濟的老路 。

                                                                          He then analyzes China’s current economic environment and policies. He sees that against the background of internal economic downturns and increasing external uncertainties caused by the big power games, China’s economic policy re-adjusted in 2018: “steadygrowth” was once again placed at a vital position, monetary policy got loosen, fiscal policy got strengthened, and “strict regulation” shifted to “steady regulation” in the financial sector. However, he draws attention to the downside of excessive intervention. Unconventional regulative policies, he says, can be helpful in short-term depending on specific economic conditions, but they require proper handling. A return to the old path of “debt-investment”driven model should be prevented.

                                                                          毛振華表示 ,今年恰逢金融危機十週年和改革開放四十週年 ,中國有必要對金融危機以來的經濟應對措施進行認真反思 ,總結得失 ,以史爲鑑 ,以此推動中國經濟和政策再調整、再出發 。他表示 ,在對外政策上 ,中國應在堅持核心利益的基礎上理性應對外部環境變化 ,適當調整外交策略 ,進一步擴大開放 ,緩釋逆全球化思潮泛起對中國經濟的衝擊 ;在對內政策上 ,中國需要堅持市場化的改革開放之路 ,通過減稅降費、扶貧攻堅等方式提升企業和困難羣體的投資、消費能力 ,進一步擴大內需 ,同時弘揚和保護企業家精神 ,鼓勵民營經濟發展 ,增強中國經濟發展的內生動力 。

                                                                          Mao Zhenhua says this year coincides adecade of 2008 financial crisis with the fortieth anniversary of China’sinitiation of Reform and Opening-up Policy. At this new start point, it is crucial for China to reflect on its post-crisis policy course, to summarize the gains and losses, and to learn from history in order to re-adjust policies and promote future economic development. He recommends that on foreign policy, besides promoting nation’s core interests, China should rationally respond to changes in external environment, adjust diplomatic strategies accordingly, make strides in opening up, relieve tensions, and cushion the impact of anti-globalization on China’s economy. As to internal policies, China needs to adhere to the market-oriented road of reform and opening up, to increase investment of enterprises and consumption capacity of needy households through polices such as tax cuts, to raise domestic demands, to promote and protect entrepreneurship, and to encourage the development of the private economy in order to enhance the endogenous driving forces of China's economic development.